Q3 2018 Seattle-Eastside Real Estate Report

Q3 Market Snapshot for Seattle and the Eastside

 

As Q3 comes to a close, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are at their highest levels since April 2011—now averaging just above 4.7%. Even so, they are still far lower than their 30-year trendline. A 1% increase in mortgage interest rates decreases buying power by 10%. Or said differently, a 1% rate increase has the same net effect on monthly payment as a 10% increase in the sale price. That also means if prices fell 10% but rates went up 1% your payment would remain the same. This is a far bigger factor than most people consider.

 

Both first-time and move-up home buyers, with (finally!) more homes for sale to choose from and motivated by anticipated further rate hikes nipping at their heels, will feel the urgency to get moved and settled while they can still afford to do so.

 

Our market is likely to increasingly favor buyers as interest rates cause mortgage payments to increase uncomfortably beyond the affordability ceiling governed by personal income and wages. Properly-priced turn-key homes, and those in the most desirable settings, are still commanding very attractive prices and occasionally multiple offers. Everything else is seeing slowing appreciation and market softening. Strategic positioning, savvy marketing, and expert negotiation have never been so important as they are now.

 

Q3 Market Averages for Seattle

 

Click or scroll down to find your area report:

Seattle | Eastside | Mercer Island | Condos | Waterfront

 


SEATTLE

Seattle neighborhoods that were strongly bolstered by new construction and renovation saw the strongest sales activity, and not surprisingly, the greatest correlated price growth. Up 16.4% Q3 over Q3, the Queen Anne/Magnolia area led the charge, followed closely by Madison Park/Capitol Hill at 15.9%. Lake Forest Park/Kenmore at 13.2% and West Seattle at 12.5% also fared very well. Richmond Beach/Shoreline (6.2%), Ballard/Green Lake (4%), North Seattle (3.4%), and South Seattle (0.7%) saw notable price easing and contributed to rounding Seattle out to a modest 6.3% overall Q3 2017 to Q3 2018 median price increase.

Seattle Chart

Click here to view the complete report for a neighborhood by neighborhood breakdown of Average Sale Price, size, and number of homes sold.

Seattle Report

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EASTSIDE

Sharp increases in the number of homes for sale coupled with fewer international buyer transactions has caused a few ripples in the Eastside real estate market.

Mercer Island shows the strongest Q3 over Q3 increase in median sale price (see explanation below) at 19.7%, followed by Woodinville at 12.3% and Redmond at 12.2%. Bringing up the mid-section was West Bellevue at 8.0%, East of Lake Sammamish at 7.8%. Lagging the Eastside median increase of 7.3% were Kirkland (6.9%), South Eastside (2.0%), and East Bellevue (1.8%).

Eastside Chart

Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!

Eastside Review

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MERCER ISLAND

The Q3 median sale price was 19.7% higher than that of Q3 2017. However, its crucial to note that Q3 of 2017 was an anomaly with many land-value sales transacting at the low end of the price spectrum. The effect was that the median sale price was 10.2% lower than Q1 of that same year. Far fewer moderately priced homes transacted in Q3 of this year.

There were 89 sales in Q3 2017 and of those sales 45 were of homes priced below $1.5 million. Compare that to Q3 of 2018 with 74 sales, of which only 28 were priced below $1.5 million. The differential of sales between the two years was almost entirely composed of entry-level and land value home sales.

To further prove this, we looked at comparable homes sold this year and last (an approach like that of the Case-Schiller index). All things being roughly equal, the median sale price of that subset of homes increased only 9.0% from Q3 2017 to Q3 2018. This number is far more in alignment with what we have truly experienced in our market.

Mercer Island Chart

Click here to view the complete report for a neighborhood by neighborhood breakdown of Average Sale Price, size, and number of homes sold.

Mercer Island Report

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CONDOS – SEATTLE & EASTSIDE

Significant new construction projects underway or announced have dampened sales of existing condos somewhat, especially where they will directly compete with the new buildings. Neighborhood safety is being weighted more carefully against urban hip now more than ever. In Seattle, median sale prices of existing condos in Downtown Seattle/Belltown (-0.4%), Queen Anne/Magnolia (-4.8%), and North Seattle (-8.0%) have all decreased while surrounding areas have seen very strong to moderate Q3-Q3 increases. This quarter’s top contenders were Richmond Beach-Shoreline (30.3%), Ballard-Green Lake (26%), and West Seattle (25%).

On the Eastside, all areas except South Bellevue (-9.3%) saw considerable increases in the Q3 median sale price. East Bellevue (37.1%), Redmond (19.1%), and Kirkland (17.6%) topped the charts.

Check out all of these factoids and more in the full condo report.

Condo Report

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WATERFRONT

The Eastside has been a hotbed of waterfront closed sale activity with as many Q3 sales as Seattle, Mercer Island, and Lake Sammamish combined. The number of active private waterfront listings for sale on the Eastside is down compared to Q3 of both 2015 and 2016, while the listing levels of Seattle, Mercer Island and Lake Sammamish waterfront properties remain about the same.

With only two closed sales in Q3, Months of Inventory—the number of homes for sale divided by the number of homes that sold—climbed dramatically on Mercer Island. Seattle, with four closed waterfront sales, saw a similar but more moderate increase. The Eastside and Lake Sammamish both experienced improvement in the Months of Inventory indicator.

The highest private waterfront Q3 sale was of a newer 6,570 square foot Hunts Point modern estate designed by Baylis Architects with 80 feet of no-bank waterfront on just over an acre of lush, private grounds for $18 million. The lowest sale was a 1,010 square feet westside Lake Sammamish 1958 beach house with 60 feet of waterfront on a shy ¼ acre lot with permitted approval for a new 5000 square foot home.

Check out the full Waterfront Report for a complete list of waterfront home sales by address and community.

Waterfront Report

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ABOUT WINDERMERE MERCER ISLAND

We earn the trust and loyalty of our brokers and clients by doing real estate exceptionally well. The leader in our market, we deliver client-focused service in an authentic, collaborative and transparent manner and with the unmatched knowledge and expertise that comes from decades of experience.

 

© Copyright 2018, Windermere Real Estate/Mercer Island. Information and statistics derived from Northwest Multiple Listing Service and deemed accurate but not guaranteed.

Posted on October 9, 2018 at 11:45 am
Windermere Mercer Island | Category: home value, Housing Market, Real Estate Trend | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

Q1 2018 Seattle-Eastside Real Estate Report

Q1 Market Snapshot

 

Q1 prices in the Seattle-Eastside region have escalated yet again with no sign of slowing in the immediate future. An unprecedented lack of inventory for sale coupled with rising interest rates has prompted buyers to compete with reckless abandon to win the prize of their very own home, albeit with a steep price tag.

 

Overall median prices in Seattle rose 16.1% to $770,000, while the Eastside rose 13.0% to $944,000. Those regional numbers certainly don’t tell the whole story, especially when you consider the highest change in median sale price was nearly 46% and the lowest was a -4%. New construction sales, or lack thereof, made the biggest impact on home sale prices. Existing homes, offering good walkability or commute options, and those that were on the more affordable end of the pricing spectrum saw the strongest appreciation overall.

 

Rising mortgage interest rates, now up a full percentage point from their lows, are adding fuel to the fire. While not dampening buyer demand yet, further increases will likely begin to price home buyers out of the core Seattle-Eastside region. Homebuyer fear of being priced out of the market is at least partly to blame for the crazed demand at more modest price points.

 

As predicted, many who don’t have a need to be close in to the metro region are choosing to sell at a high and buy more affordably outside of the Seattle-Eastside area. The rate of tear-down new construction infill has escalated at staggering numbers as builders capitalize on the market’s appetite for fresh and new.

 

Buyers today should consider their purchase thoughtfully as buying at or near the peak of the market can limit their resale options when the market corrects. Planning to stay put for five to seven years is a good strategy at this time.

 

Q1 Market Snapshot

SEATTLE

West Seattle leads the pack in median home price growth on the Seattle side of the lake. With its vibrant, hip vibe and convenient access to the city, West Seattle has benefited from Seattle’s commute gridlock—maintaining status quo while other Seattle neighborhoods have come to a halt (literally).

Seattle Report

Queen Anne saw a nice rebound in Q1 after lagging the Seattle averages for some time. South Seattle, with its light rail access, affordable prices, and new vitality, continues to see its real estate market thrive.

Click here to view the complete report for a neighborhood by neighborhood breakdown of Average Sale Price, size, and number of homes sold.

 

EASTSIDE

Significant new home development at higher price points has led the market in West Bellevue and Kirkland and brought up everything else along with it.

Eastside Review

With land values alone higher than average home sale prices in surrounding communities, this growth will have long-lasting impacts that will forever change the flavor of these communities–for better (fresh new housing stock) and worse (the lack of affordable options). Kirkland led this charge with a median sale price 45.9% higher than Q1 last year, followed by West Bellevue at 23.1%.

Click here for the full report and neighborhood-by-neighborhood statistics!

 

MERCER ISLAND

Overall, a much higher percentage of mid-range homes sold in the first quarter than in quarters past, giving the appearance of falling prices. In reality, however, it was actually a downward shift of the segment of the market that is selling.

Mercer Island Report

Don’t let the negative number for Q1 fool you. The market below the two-million-dollar mark is vastly different than the market above it. With the most severe shortage of available homes in mid-range price points Mercer Island has seen, especially early in Q1 this year, the sub $2 million market has been brisk and competitive with strong price escalation. The $2 million and above market has been a different story altogether. While highly desirable homes in that bracket have transacted quickly, many other less notable homes have languished on the market.

Click here to view the complete report for a neighborhood by neighborhood breakdown of Average Sale Price, size, and number of homes sold.

 

CONDOS – SEATTLE & EASTSIDE

Still the only affordable option for many home buyers today, condos have continued to escalate in value with appreciation rates above those of residential homes in many areas.

Condo Report

On the Eastside, new condo and townhome developments in Crossroads and Rose Hill drove prices up to new highs in those communities. Richmond Beach and Shoreline benefited from an infusion of new construction standalone condominium ‘homes’ on very small lots.

Check out all of these factoids and more in the full condo report.

 

WATERFRONT

Waterfront Report

Several significant sales accented an otherwise unremarkable quarter. A $26.8 million iconic Medina estate on 2.5 acres with 150 feet of waterfront set a new benchmark on the Eastside. Two $8+ million homes on the north end of Mercer Island–both newer construction with over 7,000 square feet–set the tone for the Island in 2018. Lake Sammamish, with a $4.2 million sale in Q1, is still in hot demand, while Seattle saw only three modest waterfront sales.

Check out the full Waterfront Report for a complete list of waterfront home sales by address and community.

 


ABOUT WINDERMERE MERCER ISLAND

We earn the trust and loyalty of our brokers and clients by doing real estate exceptionally well. The leader in our market, we deliver client-focused service in an authentic, collaborative and transparent manner and with the unmatched knowledge and expertise that comes from decades of experience.

 

© Copyright 2018, Windermere Real Estate/Mercer Island. Information and statistics derived from Northwest Multiple Listing Service and deemed accurate but not guaranteed.v

Posted on April 13, 2018 at 2:29 pm
Windermere Mercer Island | Category: home value, Housing Market, Real Estate Trend | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

Eye on the Market_May 2017

Our market has no shortage of qualified buyers and properly priced, listings in most area are selling quickly. In some neighborhoods, homes are selling, on average, in less than 30 days.

Our strong regional economy includes global companies that are attracting workers to our region. These companies impact our local market simply by where they are choosing to locate their offices.
Expedia will move its headquarters to Seattle in 2019. Amazon has announced plans to open offices in Bellevue, in addition to its main campus in Seattle’s South Lake Union neighborhood. REI has chosen to move its main office from Kent to Bellevue by 2020, and Weyerhaeuser has relocated from Federal Way to downtown Seattle.
Buyers searching for affordable homes with reasonable commute times are finding they need to expand their search to include areas to the north and south of King County. With commute times lengthening, listings close to transportation options are shooting to the top of prospective buyers’ must-see lists.
Our region continues to experience price growth resulting from an expanding local economy and population. The most recent Northwest MLS statistics show price increases for single-family homes of 10% in Pierce Country, 15.74% in King County and 17.33% in Snohomish County.
Local economists predict the strong rate of job growth in our state will continue for the remainder of this year, but it is expected to ebb in 2018. The eventual slowing in job growth and anticipated mortgage rate increases towards the end of the year may relieve some of the pressure we’re currently experiencing.
Meanwhile warm weather moves in, and our pleasant Pacific Northwest summers take center stage, attracting even more new residents to our region.
Posted on May 17, 2017 at 9:33 am
Lisa Dong | Category: Booming Seattle, global real estate, home value, public awareness, Real Estate Trend, Surge Demand, 西雅图房地产市场准确报告 | Tagged , , ,

One month after Brexit, its impact on US housing market

When Britons voted to leave the European Union on July 23, 2016, in a referendum commonly known as Brexit, the impact on the British economy — and on Europe’s too — was immediate. Here across the pond, though, it’s not been totally clear how Brexit would affect the U.S. economy, and in particular interest rates tied to mortgages.

A month later, we have a better understanding of how Brexit affects US real estate market. Here are some of the benefits Brexit is bringing us [and a drawback too].

  1. Mortgages will get cheaper. As the impact of Brexit hits our shores, one of the effects is to drive down stock prices, making the safety of bonds look far more attractive. And when bond rates drop because the market is being flooded, interest rates drop as well. Experts indicate that this flood of money into the bond market should delay the Fed’s raising of interest rates, which had been anticipated to happen at least once this year.
  2. Homes will get more expensive. This is great news for sellers. Low interest rates mean more people can get qualified for a loan, flooding the market with wannabe homebuyers and driving prices higher.
  3. Buyers can shop for bigger houses. This seems to contradict No. 2, but right now, lower interest rates also mean that your clients can borrow more money, and it could get them into a home that was previously out of their reach. It’s true that rising home prices will impact this ability, but they haven’t taken off yet, so buying now is a smart move.
  4. Brexit could spark a recession. And that’s good for no one, if the economy destabilizes and incomes freeze or even drop. But having survived one recent market downturn, the country is in a better position to stave off another.

There’s no guarantee, of course, when the market will right itself and the immediate impact of Brexit abates. And there’s no knowing whether a more stable European economy will allow interest rates Stateside to begin to climb again. That’s why homeshoppers need to make their move now and get into a new home while rates are low, home prices have not yet begun to climb and their dollars go further.

brexit

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Posted on August 4, 2016 at 4:03 pm
Lisa Dong | Category: Booming Seattle, global real estate, home value, Housing Market, Real Estate Trend, seller, Surge Demand | Tagged , ,

How will the 2016 Election Impact the Housing Market?

"Absolutely will!" " Depending upon who occupies the Whitel house in 2017. Historically speaking home prices continue to go up through an election year and indeed the year thereafter. However the rate of growth certainly slows. We can see a very robust price growth in 2016, however 2017 will be another matter entirely." 

"Wall Street is very powerful, but they don't like uncertainty"

                                                             -from Matthew Gardner, Windermere RE Chief Economist

Here Are All The Dates You Need To Know For Election 2016

July 18-21 — Republican National Convention in Cleveland

July 25-28 — Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia

Sept. 26 — Presidential debate at Wright State University in Dayton, Ohio

Oct. 4 — Vice presidential debate at Longwood University in Farmville, Virginia

Oct. 9 — Presidential debate at Washington University in St. Louis

Oct. 19 — Presidential debate at University of Nevada-Las Vegas

Nov. 8 — Election Day

Posted on July 10, 2016 at 7:36 am
Lisa Dong | Category: Election, Housing Market, Real Estate Trend, 西雅图房地产市场准确报告 | Tagged , ,

Seattle will host 2018 Special Olympics USA Games

On Thursday May 12th, Seattle officials announced to host the next Special Olympics USA games in July 2018, which will mark the games' 50th year since its first International Special Olympics in 1968 in Chicago.

It is anticipated to have 3500 athletes from 50 states to come over to Seattle from July 1-6, 2018. University of Washington will be the venue to host the 16 individual and team sports such as powerlifting, gymnastics, soccer, volleyball etc.

Not only thousands of athletes, but also thousands of volunteers and spectators will gather in Seattle in July, the best month of summer. We can imagine beautiful Seattle showcased once more on a national stage.

As a certified residential specialist and a realtor in King County, Washington, it is my instinct to evaluate the impact the Special Olympics will have on the already heated local real estate demand in Seattle. With so many positive news regarding Seattle’s hosting of big national and international events, I have strong confidence that the local economics and real estate market will grow and be more prosperous than our conservative predication completed in early 2016.

Lisa Dong is an experienced realtor in Seattle area, serving people on their real estate needs since 2010. She can be reached by lisadong@windermere.com.

Posted on May 13, 2016 at 8:43 am
Lisa Dong | Category: Booming Seattle, Real Estate Trend, Surge Demand | Tagged , , ,